SUMMARY OF THE 23rd MEETING OF THE SPACE MISSION PLANNING ADVISORY GROUP (SMPAG)

10-11 October 2024

Hosted by the Italian Space Agency, ASI at the University di Politecnico, Milano, Italy

Conference room: Aula Magna

Hybrid meeting (WebEx)

The 23rd meeting of the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) took place on 10-11 October 2024, hosted by ASI at the University di Politecnico, Milano. The meeting was chaired by the European Space Agency (ESA), the current SMPAG Chair (2023-2025) and supported by the UN Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA) as the secretariat. 

1) Adoption of the agenda and introduction of participants

The revised agenda was adopted. The following agencies and institutions were represented at the meeting: ASI, CNES, CSA, Czechia, DLR, ESA, FFG, ISA, JAXA, NASA, UKSA. The meeting was also attended by observer for ISRO. Representative of IAWN, ex officio member, participated at the meeting The meeting was also attended by observers for COSPAR and SWF, and by observer for EAS (European Astronomical Society). Representatives from the SMPAG Legal Working Group attended the meeting.

The meeting opened with introductory remarks from the host, by Prof. Marco Lovera, Department of Aerospace Science and Technology (DAER), Politecnico di Milano,  which is the department entirely dedicated to aerospace studies in Italy. 

2) SMPAG hypothetical Near-Earth Asteroid “2024 PDC25” impact exercise

The 23rd SMPAG meeting was dedicated primarily to finalizing recommendations by SMPAG for the hypothetical Near-Earth Asteroid “2024 PDC25” impact exercise. More information on the scenario can be found on the webpage of JPL CNEOS here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc25/.

2.1. The Chair of SMPAG, Detlef Koschny (on behalf of ESA), presented an overview of SMPAG activities since 1 August 2024, when the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issued a hypothetical impact warning for a hypothetical Near-Earth Asteroid “2024 PDC25” impact exercise, in accordance with the IAWN/SMPAG agreed criteria and thresholds for impact response actions, as contained in A/AC.105/C.1/2017/CRP.25 that was before the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. The threshold for issuing warnings of possible impact effects is a probability of impact greater than 1 % and a rough size estimated to be greater than 10 meters (33 feet). 

The Chair informed that, since 1 August 2024, SMPAG held regular weekly meetings to exchange information about the asteroid deflection options under the following work packages: WP 1, mission analysis; WP2/3, payload options and spacecraft design; WP4, costs; WP5, recommendations/decision; WP6, communication; and WP7, inputs by SMPAG Legal Working Group.

2.2. The IAWN Coordinator, Kelly Fast (NASA PDCO), informed SMPAG on the status of information about the asteroid available on 1 August 2024 and an update as of 10 October 2024.

2.3. WP1: ESA presented a summary of mission options under WP 1, with the following contributing agencies (ASI, ESA, NASA, UKSA).

2.4. WP2: CNES presented information under WP 2, spacecraft and payload design/selection for a fast flyby mission, available here. ASI encouraged more SMPAG members to take part in this work package.

2.5. WP3: Costs. SMPAG addressed the issue of costs related to mission design and implementation. SMPAG noted that cost estimates are expected to be made by space agencies as part of their mission design to inform future decisions. SMPAG further noted that there would be lost opportunity costs if no action is taken for a fast flyby reconnaissance mission, as per recommendation I. The earlier a deflection is performed, the smaller the needed energy, i.e. smaller/fewer launchers and spacecraft would be needed.

2.6. WP4: Communication: Related to communication, SMPAG encourages its members to communicate on SMPAG activities contained in this document for potential response to the impact threat with their respective audiences.

2.7. The SMPAG Legal Working Group, established in 2016 by SMPAG, has been tasked by SMPAG to provide assessment of legal-related questions for the exercise scenario, in accordance with SMPAG WG Legal Terms of Reference.

Discussion on proposed SMPAG recommendation scenarios – Response by SMPAG member space agencies

NASA presented its Mission Recommendations Response and Notional Recommendations Charts, and ASI presented their Mission Response Recommendations.

Following discussions among space agencies, and their responses to the proposed SMPAG recommendation scenario, recommendations by SMPAG in response to IAWN notification were prepared.

SMPAG discussed that the information about this hypothetical asteroid impact exercise could be presented at the next session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee, scheduled from 3-14 February, in a form of a conference room paper, for information to States members of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS).

3) General exchange of information on activities by SMPAG members

The following SMPAG members shared information about their on-going activities related to PD-missions: ASI, CNES, ESA, DLR, FFG, ISA, JAXA, NASA, UKSA and ISRO as observer. Activities were also presented by the following observers: COSPAR and SWF.

IAWN, ex officio member of SMPAG informed about the 18th IAWN meeting, held on 17 September 2024, where updates on new signatories were given. IAWN currently has 60 signatories from 28 countries. The IAWN meeting also addressed the hypothetical asteroid “2024 PDC25” impact scenario, its plans for the Apophis- and comet-observing campaigns, and for sharing best practices for comet astrometry. The IAWN Steering Committee has been re-organized around the core capabilities of the IAWN and will meet next during the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of COPUOS, 3-14 February 2025, during week one, possibly on 4 February 2025.

4) Asteroid Apophis and related activities:

SMPAG members exchanged information on Apophis-related activities, among others, ASI informed of its contribution to ESA’s Ramses mission in terms of spacecraft and payloads (a replica of Milani CubeSat); studies are also being conducted on an option for a CubeSat to land on Apophis; CNES informed on its support to Ramses mission in terms of instruments and its collaboration with NASA JPL on a potential fly-by mission to Apophis; DLR informed on its plans for supporting Ramses with scientific payloads not pre-empting the decisions at the next ESA Council at ministerial level; FFG also indicated its support to Ramses mission in the implementation phase; JAXA also indicated potential support in terms of an infra-red camera. NASA informed on OSIRIS-APEX, a follow-on to OSIRIS-REx, which will study the physical changes to asteroid Apophis after the asteroid’s rare close encounter with Earth in 2029; its plans to re-purpose the Janus spacecraft to visit the asteroid Apophis ahead of that asteroid’s close flyby of the Earth in April 2029; and its plans to contribute to the Ramses mission in terms of instruments and camera. ISRO reported on its plans to contribute to the Ramses mission (payloads, sensors). IAWN is discussing a joint observation campaign.

UNOOSA informed that draft resolution to declare 2029 an UN-designated International Year of Asteroid Awareness and Planetary Defence is before the 79th General Assembly for its adoption, expected end October. 

SMPAG discussed the proposal to establish a dedicated SMPAG Asteroid Apophis Coordination Working Group, as an excellent real-world opportunity for SMPAG, in accordance with its mandate and Terms of reference, to coordinate and be informed of activities by space agencies that will revolve around the close approach by Apophis. A more detailed proposal (possibly distributed ahead of next meeting) and decision are expected at its 24th meeting, 5-6 February 2025 in Vienna.

5)  SMPAG Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise (led by ASI)

ASI, the lead of SMPAG hypothetical asteroid impact exercise that runs in parallel to the “2024 PD25”, informed SMPAG that the report of Sprint 1 has been finalized. Some space agencies are however still looking at having their input reflected in Sprint 1 report, and following their internal procedure, the report will be published thereafter.

Sprint 2: One of the outcomes of Sprint 2, led by ASI, is the decision to participate in the “2024 PD25” hypothetical asteroid impact exercise to be presented at the 2025 IAA PDC. Therefore, the final report of Sprint 2 will be published after the Conference, to reflect lessons learned from PDC.

Sprint 3, which addresses data-sharing and inter-agency communication, will begin after the 2025 IAA PDC. The aim of Sprint 3 is to define the format of data-sharing and communication protocols. As an example, the IADC Coordination Committee could serve as a model/best practice in this regard. SMPAG will share information and files through a shared drive, with access granted to SMPAG official delegation members (General folder); and for the hypothetical exercise to the nominated experts (Hypothetical Exercise folder).

6) SMPAG Legal WG

The coordinator for SMPAG Legal Working Group presented responses to SMPAG queries (related to the Artemis Accords) and way forward for 2025.

7) Other matters

  • SMPAG ToR: Possible amendments to SMPAG ToR has been postponed to the 24th meeting in February (Action: DLR).
  • A proposal was discussed for SMPAG to consider establishing a working group that would address policy matters. This will be open for an agenda item at the next meeting.
  • The next, 24th SMPAG meeting is proposed for 5-6 February 2025 at the Vienna International Centre (VIC), Vienna, in conjunction with the 62nd session of the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee.

All available presentations and documents for the 23rd SMPAG meeting will be made available on our documentation page.

 

Last update: 22 Nov 2024, dvk